Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Mon, May 21, 2018 - Tue, May 22, 2018 | D6 | Thu, May 24, 2018 - Fri, May 25, 2018 |
| D4 | Tue, May 22, 2018 - Wed, May 23, 2018 | D7 | Fri, May 25, 2018 - Sat, May 26, 2018 |
| D5 | Wed, May 23, 2018 - Thu, May 24, 2018 | D8 | Sat, May 26, 2018 - Sun, May 27, 2018 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 192028 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A closed upper-level low will develop over portions of southern California on Day 3/Monday. This feature will be embedded within a large scale upper-level trough located along the West Coast. By Day 4/Tuesday the closed low will weaken while the trough elongates and transitions to an open wave, and on Day 5/Wednesday the trough will continue to weaken as it lifts northeast toward the northern Rockies. A region of modestly enhanced mid-level flow will be present along the southern periphery of the trough as it undergoes the aforementioned evolution. At the surface, hot and dry conditions amid receptive fuels will prevail over portions of the Southwest. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Portions of the Southwest... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely on Day 3/Monday over at least some portions of northwest Arizona to warrant the inclusion of 70%/enhanced probabilities. For now this area has been confined to the most probable overlap in wind/RH/temperatures exceeding critical thresholds, where diurnal heating should allow the marginally enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow to mix toward the surface. Thereafter, despite the aforementioned weakening trend there appears to be enough upper-level flow associated with the trough to highlight low-end fire-weather potential across portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. The 40%/marginal probabilities on Day 4/Tuesday have been expanded slightly eastward, and a new delineation added on Day 5/Wednesday. In addition, there is perhaps some fire-weather potential across the central High Plains on Day 5/Wednesday, but too much uncertainty exists among the medium range guidance and fuel receptiveness to include any highlights at this time. Beyond Day 5/Wednesday, medium-range guidance exhibits considerable uncertainty in the placement of any upper-level features that could impact fire-weather potential in the extended range. Likewise, there is uncertainty in the exact placement of enhanced surface winds and dry conditions, thus precluding the introduction of any highlights on Day 6/Thursday and beyond. ..Karstens.. 05/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT