ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

   A robust upper-level low and associated mid-level jet is expected to
   traverse the Desert Southwest through the weekend (day 3/4) into
   Central Plains by early next week. A corresponding dry air mass over
   the Southwest within a drought impacted and dry fuelscape will
   combine with increasing southwest winds to present Elevated to
   potentially Critical fire weather threat across portions of Arizona
   and New Mexico for the weekend, with model consensus continuing to
   indicate higher probabilities of Critical fire weather Sunday. Model
   guidance consensus suggests a dry, ridging pattern with subsequent
   lighter winds setting up over the Western U.S. by the middle of next
   week with active weather, including opportunities for widespread
   precipitation.

   ...Southwest...
   Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across
   portions of the Southwest over the weekend. As mid-level flow
   increases ahead of the upper-level low (centered over central
   California Saturday), accelerating surface winds from the southwest
   will combine with a very dry air mass to allow for at least an
   Elevated fire weather for day 3/Saturday. A substantial increase in
   ensemble guidance probabilities for stronger winds and low relative
   humidity exists for day 4/Sunday, allowing for higher predictability
   for Critical highlights across portions of southern and central New
   Mexico. As the upper-low translates northeastward into the Central
   Plains by day 5/Monday, fire weather concerns shift eastward into
   the southern High Plains. However, expected precipitation and
   ongoing green-up should limit overall fire spread potential in this
   region.

   ...Florida...
   East-southeasterly surface flow associated with a subtropical ridge
   is expected across the Florida Peninsula through day 3/Saturday,
   presenting at least an Elevated fire weather concern for Saturday
   amid persistent dry fuels. A southward progressing but decelerating
   cold front should be a focusing mechanism for convection across
   northern and central Florida Sunday and Monday. New lightning
   initiated fire are possible, but associated rainfall from showers
   and thunderstorms should have an overall mitigating affect on fire
   weather concerns.

   ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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