ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250854
   SPC AC 250854

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
   A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from
   the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a
   surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the
   northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow
   will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into
   parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will
   support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm
   sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the
   southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along
   the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into
   Kansas. 

   The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday will be from eastern
   Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern
   Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability,
   strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the
   potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind
   profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards
   including the potential for strong tornadoes. 

   ...Day 5/Tue - Southern Plains to parts of the Northeast...
   The surface low associated with the Day 4 threat will continue
   northeast and bring its associated cold front eastward across the
   Midwest and Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Moderate to strong
   instability is forecast south of this front from northern New York
   to the Ohio Valley. Much of the frontal zone should have sufficient
   shear to support multiple storm clusters and the potential for a few
   supercells. 

   Day 6/Wed-Day8/Fri - Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the
   Southeast...
   A weaker mid-level shortwave trough is consistently depicted by
   extended range guidance by the middle of next week across the
   southern Plains. However, significant uncertainty remains about the
   strength of this trough and location of any frontal zones. In
   addition, convection across the southern Plains each day of the
   extended range forecast could significantly impact destabilization
   by Day 6-8. Therefore, confidence is not high enough to add
   probabilities at this time, but they may eventually be needed
   somewhere across the Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley.

   ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025

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