(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100833
SPC AC 100833
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at
12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern
CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture
quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will
improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface
buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where
guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level
jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over
Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be
limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance
suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the
portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb
wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds.
Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe
threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A
compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside
of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe
potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the
western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday.
..Grams.. 04/10/2025
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