Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 8, 2025
Updated: Tue Apr 8 08:40:02 UTC 2025
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Apr 11, 2025 - Sat, Apr 12, 2025
D7
Mon, Apr 14, 2025 - Tue, Apr 15, 2025
D5
Sat, Apr 12, 2025 - Sun, Apr 13, 2025
D8
Tue, Apr 15, 2025 - Wed, Apr 16, 2025
D6
Sun, Apr 13, 2025 - Mon, Apr 14, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080837
SPC AC 080837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Day 4/Friday, an amplified large-scale trough will move slowly
eastward across the Appalachians. Ahead of a related surface low in
the lee of the Appalachians, weakly modified boundary-layer moisture
will be in place across the coastal Mid-Atlantic states. While
instability will be marginal, owing to the limited moisture and poor
lapse rates, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow may support a
couple strong storms during the afternoon. The overall severe threat
appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time.
By Day 6/Sunday, a midlevel trough will advance eastward across the
northern/central Plains, while an elongated downstream surface
trough (with embedded surface lows) promotes partially modified Gulf
moisture return across the southern/central Plains and MS Valley.
Despite multiple surface boundaries across the Plains, current
indications are that a strong EML and related capping atop the
limited boundary-layer moisture should inhibit surface-based
thunderstorm potential.
Thereafter, medium-range guidance varies considerably regarding the
timing and evolution of the aforementioned midlevel trough and
associated warm sector -- limiting confidence in severe-storm
potential for Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday.
..Weinman.. 04/08/2025
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