(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240902
SPC AC 240902
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with
respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe
risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the
country.
Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible
across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from
the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the
Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a
weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly
east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a
broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas
either of these two days.
Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period
-- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains.
This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across
almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a
warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS.
By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a
strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should
begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently
expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward
advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the
central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a
moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system,
and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing
severe potential, with all-hazards possible.
Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will
continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued
moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon
destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area
of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and
Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe
weather hazards would be possible.
Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east
of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less
robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time.
Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty
precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday.
..Goss.. 03/24/2025
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