Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 25, 2025
Updated: Tue Feb 25 09:57:02 UTC 2025
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Feb 28, 2025 - Sat, Mar 01, 2025
D7
Mon, Mar 03, 2025 - Tue, Mar 04, 2025
D5
Sat, Mar 01, 2025 - Sun, Mar 02, 2025
D8
Tue, Mar 04, 2025 - Wed, Mar 05, 2025
D6
Sun, Mar 02, 2025 - Mon, Mar 03, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250955
SPC AC 250955
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern
Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By
D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern
Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur
ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe
weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general,
the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern
Plains and parts of the Southeast with a broad trough in the western
CONUS with a series of shortwave troughs advecting into the Plains
and eventually across the eastern CONUS. This pattern will likely
support one or more severe weather episodes, but pinpointing the
exact day and location will require less variance in the timing and
amplitude of the mid-level pattern within the extended range
ensemble suite. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are
warranted at this time.
..Bentley.. 02/25/2025
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