Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 6, 2024
Updated: Sat Jul 6 08:24:02 UTC 2024
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jul 09, 2024 - Wed, Jul 10, 2024
D7
Fri, Jul 12, 2024 - Sat, Jul 13, 2024
D5
Wed, Jul 10, 2024 - Thu, Jul 11, 2024
D8
Sat, Jul 13, 2024 - Sun, Jul 14, 2024
D6
Thu, Jul 11, 2024 - Fri, Jul 12, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060822
SPC AC 060822
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Predictability will remain low during the extended period. There may
be some increase in severe potential associated with the remnants of
TC Beryl mid to late next week. With some uncertainty in the track
and overall strength of the low-level wind fields, confidence in an
organized severe threat is low. Upper-level ridging is also expected
to expand eastward out of the West and encompass much of the CONUS
by late next week. The strongest flow aloft will be pushed northward
along the Canadian border. There are weak model signals for
convection within parts of the northern Plains late next week, but
confidence in the magnitude of risk is too low this far in advance.
..Wendt.. 07/06/2024
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