Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 24, 2024
Updated: Mon Jun 24 08:54:03 UTC 2024
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jun 27, 2024 - Fri, Jun 28, 2024
D7
Sun, Jun 30, 2024 - Mon, Jul 01, 2024
D5
Fri, Jun 28, 2024 - Sat, Jun 29, 2024
D8
Mon, Jul 01, 2024 - Tue, Jul 02, 2024
D6
Sat, Jun 29, 2024 - Sun, Jun 30, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240852
SPC AC 240852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday: Northern High Plains...
A rather amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
move from the Northwest toward the northern Rockies on Thursday,
reaching the northern High Plains later Thursday night. A surface
low is forecast to deepen across eastern MT during the day, and then
move eastward across the Dakotas Thursday night.
Some uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and placement of
organized severe-thunderstorm potential, due to the relatively late
shortwave arrival and a tendency for stronger mid/upper-level flow
to be displaced from the warm sector. However, modest low-level
moisture return will support potential for moderate destabilization,
in conjunction with some increase in deep-layer flow/shear. Some
potential for strong to severe storms is evident from eastern MT
into the western and possibly central Dakotas, and probabilities
will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.
...D5/Friday: Northern/central Plains into the upper Midwest...
The shortwave trough and related surface low that affect the
northern High Plains on Thursday will move eastward on Friday, as a
trailing cold front moves across parts of the central Plains. A warm
front will move northward in advance of the surface low across parts
of MN/WI. Details regarding the northward extent of stronger
destabilization remain uncertain, with some potential for rather
extensive early-day convection within a warm-advection regime.
However, an organized severe-thunderstorm threat could eventually
evolve in conjunction with the surface low and warm front across
MN/WI, and also potentially along the cold front into parts of Iowa
and the central Plains.
...D6/Saturday - D8/Monday...
Predictability begins to wane by D6/Saturday regarding evolution of
the upper pattern and surface features across the CONUS. The cold
front that moves across parts of the Great Plains and Midwest on
Friday is generally forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes
and Northeast on Saturday. Guidance varies regarding the extent of
prefrontal destabilization and strength of deep-layer flow, but
strong to potentially severe storms could develop along the front by
Saturday afternoon/evening.
Another mid/upper-level trough may move from the Northwest across
the northern Rockies and High Plains Sunday into Monday, though
considerable uncertainty remains regarding the amplitude/timing of
this trough and any related severe potential into early next week.
..Dean.. 06/24/2024
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