Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 26, 2023
Updated: Sun Mar 26 08:21:03 UTC 2023
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
178,588
13,069,567
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
306,788
28,754,707
Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Mar 29, 2023 - Thu, Mar 30, 2023
D7
Sat, Apr 01, 2023 - Sun, Apr 02, 2023
D5
Thu, Mar 30, 2023 - Fri, Mar 31, 2023
D8
Sun, Apr 02, 2023 - Mon, Apr 03, 2023
D6
Fri, Mar 31, 2023 - Sat, Apr 01, 2023
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260819
SPC AC 260819
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will be low on Day 4/Wed as an upper ridge remains
over the Plains and an upper trough digs over the western U.S.
Surface high pressure over the Midwest will result in mostly stable
conditions as Gulf moisture remains offshore east of the Mississippi
River. Late in the period, the western trough will being to migrate
eastward. Developing low pressure over the Four Corners and southern
Rockies will result in increasing southerly low level flow over the
southern Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward
across TX by early Day 5/Thu.
Severe potential will increase markedly on Days 5-6/Thu-Fri from the
southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley
vicinity. The western upper trough is expected to slowly progress
eastward during this time. There remain differences in forecast
guidance regarding the timing of the upper trough ejecting east from
the western U.S. into the Plains and then eastward. While the GFS
suite of guidance remains faster than the ECMWF and Canadian
guidance, overall trends have become better aligned. Given timing
uncertainty, the severe delineations may still shift/expand in the
coming days. If a slower trough ejection occurs, the severe threat
on Thursday could become more isolated due to capping. Nevertheless,
a large warm sector will overspread the southern/central Plains into
the Mid-South vicinity Thursday and Friday. This will occur as a
deepening surface low over the southern/central High Plains ejects
east/northeast and intense low/midlevel southwesterly flow
overspreads the region. This should support severe thunderstorms
capable of all severe hazards shifting east/northeast with time from
the Plains toward the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Thu/Fri.
Confidence in severe potential continuing into Day 7/Sat is low,
given aforementioned timing uncertainty and several bouts of
thunderstorms heading into the weekend. Forecast guidance
discrepancies only increase further heading into Day 8/Sun and
predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 03/26/2023
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