Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 25, 2022
Updated: Fri Nov 25 08:33:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
40,023
1,753,339
Shreveport, LA...Bossier City, LA...Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...Greenville, MS...
15 %
107,488
9,108,084
Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Beaumont, TX...Tyler, TX...
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Nov 28, 2022 - Tue, Nov 29, 2022
D7
Thu, Dec 01, 2022 - Fri, Dec 02, 2022
D5
Tue, Nov 29, 2022 - Wed, Nov 30, 2022
D8
Fri, Dec 02, 2022 - Sat, Dec 03, 2022
D6
Wed, Nov 30, 2022 - Thu, Dec 01, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250831
SPC AC 250831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to show a potent large-scale trough
digging south across the western U.S. on Day 4/Mon, and ejecting
eastward across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Day 5/Tue. As
this occurs, strong southerly low-level flow will develop across
eastern parts of southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley in response
to strengthening cyclogenesis over the central/southern Plains. This
will transport unseasonably rich Gulf moisture northward across
eastern OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley beneath intense vertical
shear.
Details continue to shift with regards to the north and east extent
of quality boundary-layer moisture return, and in how far east a
surface cold front will surge by Day 6/Wed morning. However,
agreement between deterministic, ensemble and machine-learning
guidance supports greater than average confidence that a corridor of
severe potential will exist from eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley
on Day 5/Tue. Furthermore, a corridor of enhanced severe potential
appears likely within the broader risk area across the ArkLaMiss
vicinity. While confidence is high that severe potential will exist
on Day 5/Tue, the area delineated may continue to shift some in the
coming days, depending on trends in system amplitude and within
forecast guidance.
Forecast guidance varies quite a bit moving into Day 6/Wed regarding
the extent of the warm sector across the central Gulf coast
vicinity. Some severe potential may continue into parts of
MS/AL/GA/FL, but confidence remains low regarding intensity and
coverage, precluding unconditional severe probabilities at this
time.
By Day 7/Thu, strong surface high pressure across the eastern U.S.
will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, and severe
potential will be low. Medium range guidance then depicts another
large-scale upper trough over the western U.S. shifting east toward
the Rockies/Plains, supporting another surge of Gulf return flow
across the south-central U.S. Severe thunderstorm potential is
uncertain on Day 8/Fri, but could increase late in the period into
next weekend.
..Leitman.. 11/25/2022
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