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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 2, 2022
Updated: Wed Feb 2 09:42:02 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Feb 05, 2022 - Sun, Feb 06, 2022 D7Tue, Feb 08, 2022 - Wed, Feb 09, 2022
D5Sun, Feb 06, 2022 - Mon, Feb 07, 2022 D8Wed, Feb 09, 2022 - Thu, Feb 10, 2022
D6Mon, Feb 07, 2022 - Tue, Feb 08, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020940
   SPC AC 020940

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. A
   surface cold front over the western Atlantic into central FL and
   eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift east/southeast on Day
   4/Saturday. This front will develop well south into the southern
   Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean vicinity. A series of mid/upper-level
   troughs will develop and track across the U.S. east of the Rockies
   during the period. Additionally, a couple surface cold fronts will
   sweep across much of the central/eastern U.S. through Day
   8/Wednesday. This will keep Gulf moisture well offshore and
   generally dry/stable conditions will prevail, limiting thunderstorm
   potential.

   ..Leitman.. 02/02/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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