Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 2, 2022
Updated: Wed Feb 2 09:42:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Feb 05, 2022 - Sun, Feb 06, 2022
D7
Tue, Feb 08, 2022 - Wed, Feb 09, 2022
D5
Sun, Feb 06, 2022 - Mon, Feb 07, 2022
D8
Wed, Feb 09, 2022 - Thu, Feb 10, 2022
D6
Mon, Feb 07, 2022 - Tue, Feb 08, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020940
SPC AC 020940
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. A
surface cold front over the western Atlantic into central FL and
eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift east/southeast on Day
4/Saturday. This front will develop well south into the southern
Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean vicinity. A series of mid/upper-level
troughs will develop and track across the U.S. east of the Rockies
during the period. Additionally, a couple surface cold fronts will
sweep across much of the central/eastern U.S. through Day
8/Wednesday. This will keep Gulf moisture well offshore and
generally dry/stable conditions will prevail, limiting thunderstorm
potential.
..Leitman.. 02/02/2022
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