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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 28, 2019
Updated: Thu Feb 28 08:31:03 UTC 2019
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 28, 2019
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 28, 2019
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 127,337 9,872,283 Memphis, TN...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Jackson, MS...Huntsville, AL...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 28, 2019
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 28, 2019
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 28, 2019
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 28, 2019
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Mar 03, 2019 - Mon, Mar 04, 2019 D7Wed, Mar 06, 2019 - Thu, Mar 07, 2019
D5Mon, Mar 04, 2019 - Tue, Mar 05, 2019 D8Thu, Mar 07, 2019 - Fri, Mar 08, 2019
D6Tue, Mar 05, 2019 - Wed, Mar 06, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280829
   SPC AC 280829

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ECMWF has been the most consistent model generating a surface low
   over the Arklatex immediately ahead of a surging arctic front. This
   feature will be induced by a pronounced mid-level short-wave trough
   that is forecast to translate across the lower MS Valley through the
   Mid-South by Sunday evening. Latest guidance suggests higher-PW air
   mass should advance to near the TN border ahead of the surface wave
   which should allow a broad warm sector to materialize prior to
   frontal passage. It appears strong-severe organized convection could
   develop ahead of the short wave as strong shear and adequate
   buoyancy will be in place prior to convective development.

   Beyond day4, severe potential will be low into the middle of next
   week as moisture/instability are shunted well offshore.

   ..Darrow.. 02/28/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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