ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250909
   SPC AC 250909

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

   Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into
   the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to
   evolution/progression of large-scale features.

   Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue
   moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the
   lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning.  Showers and
   thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust
   CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that
   severe potential should remain subdued.

   Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow
   aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will
   likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm
   front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for
   hail.  Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion.  


   Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the
   Rockies.  However, models forecast the main surface low to remain
   over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a
   capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and
   the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of
   subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. 
   As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely
   hindered through Sunday morning.

   The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from
   Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the
   day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians.
    As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains,
   supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector
   will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development
   initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading
   eastward through the evening.  The favorable thermodynamic
   environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle
   troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and
   attendant, all-hazards severe potential.

   By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of
   surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians.  Still, enough
   destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to
   allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant
   severe risk.

   Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front
   residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while
   lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per
   the ECMWF.  Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk
   areas will be included.

   ..Goss.. 03/25/2025

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