MKC MCD 282038
OKZ000-TXZ000-282300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0432 FOR...N-CENTRAL TX/SRN AND SWRN
OK...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF N-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND ALSO SWRN AND SRN OKLAHOMA. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER
THIS REGION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER N-CENTRAL TX...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SWRN OK...WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AIR MASS
ACROSS THIS AREA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE NEAR 90...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MOIST AXIS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE-BASED CAPES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG
EXIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST TX
ATTM WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BRINGING
WITH IT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS. A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. RAPID
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS A RATHER LARGE AREA THROUGH 29/00Z.

..CARBIN.. 03/28/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;305,0984 338,0973 318,0973 285,0984;
ACUS3 KMKC 282245
MKC MCD 282245
TXZ000-290200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0433 FOR S CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WE ARE MONITORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY.

ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE IS RATHER WEAK...LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ARE SUPPORTING SLOW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF DRY LINE AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE TO 3000 J/KG...MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
AND LACK OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PERSISTANCE OF INTENSE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET...MUCH BEYOND 29/01-02Z.

..KERR.. 03/28/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;364,0976 372,0958 352,0958 344,0976;
ACUS3 KMKC 282318
MKC MCD 282318
OKZ000-290300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0434 FOR NRN/CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WE ARE MONITORING NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW
THIS EVENING.

REGIONAL VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST STRONG CONVERGENCE IN 925 TO 850 MB
LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER...NORTH OF SURFACE
FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER. AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING...ENHANCED LIFT
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ABOVE COOL/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...WHILE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED TO HAIL...MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL.


..KERR.. 03/28/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;338,0973 344,0940 324,0940 318,0973;
ACUS3 KMKC 282345
MKC MCD 282345
TXZ000-OKZ000-290200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0435 FOR N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 128

NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF CURRENT WW BY/SHORTLY AFTER 29/02Z.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF
MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA/
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS SUPPORTING INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO EVOLVE ALONG INTERSTATE 35...FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR ARDMORE.
ALTHOUGH MOST SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS HAVE BEEN IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SUPERCELLS...
DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT IN WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AS INTENSE LEADING
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS...IT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALONG UPPER
JET AXIS...VICINITY OF INTERSTATES 20 AND 30 DURING THE NEXT 2 TO
4 HOURS.


..KERR.. 03/28/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;338,0973 334,0938 314,0938 318,0973;
ACUS3 KMKC 290123
MKC MCD 290123
TXZ000-OKZ000-290300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0436 FOR NE TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 128

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR EVOLUTION OF BOWING-TYPE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OUT OF LARGE INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELL CURRENTLY
OVER THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. ACTIVITY WILL ACCELERATE
EASTWARD WITH UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20/INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR INTO THE ARKLATEX THROUGH
29/06Z.


..KERR.. 03/29/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;295,0994 277,0985 277,0965 295,0974;
ACUS3 KMKC 290207
MKC MCD 290207
TXZ000-290400-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0437 FOR S CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 130

LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS WW AREA...BUT THREAT MAY BE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.
THREE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ACTIVITY IS WELL EAST OF DRY LINE...ALONG/
JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ONLY READILY APPARENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY IN LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
LOOPS...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING IN AIR MASS WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION.


..KERR.. 03/29/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;305,0984 338,0973 318,0973 285,0984;
ACUS3 KMKC 290258
MKC MCD 290258
TXZ000-290500-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0438 FOR CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WWS 129/130 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY NEW WW ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE THEIR SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 29/04Z.
02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES DRY LINE IS STILL WEST OF MINERAL
WELLS AND JUNCTION...WITH AIR MASS REMAINING MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE TO THE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS. AS
UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MIGRATES OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE MAY
SUPPORT RENEWED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN MODERATELY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ENHANCED BY SUBSTANTIAL MID/UPPER
JET...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.


..KERR.. 03/29/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;324,0948 323,0957 323,0937 324,0928;
ACUS3 KMKC 290435
MKC MCD 290435
TXZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-290700-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0439 FOR ERN TX/SRN AR/NRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF 131

CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ON
NOSE OF INITIAL MID/UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY STRONG/DEEP LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. MOST SIGNFICANT STORM REMAINS STRONG ISOLATED
SUPERCELL ON SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE JUST SOUTH OF LONGVIEW TX INTO SABINE/
DE SOTO PARISHES OF LOUISIANA BY 07-08Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 03/29/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;308,1009 358,0970 328,0970 278,1009;
ACUS3 KMKC 290752
MKC MCD 290752
TXZ000-291000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0440 FOR HILL COUNTRY/CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL...

REF WW 132...
TRAINING ECHOES WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2-2.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SUTTON COUNTY TX THROUGH SAN
SABA/LLANO COUNTIES IN TX. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SPS...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO VAL VERDE
COUNTY TX. VAD WIND PROFILE DATA FROM AREA SUGGESTS THAT DEEP
CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT ORIENTATION OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF DRYLINE FROM
SUTTON INTO SAN SABA/LLANO COUNTIES IN TX SUGGESTS TRAINING ECHOES
WILL PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE INCREASING FROM BIG BEND
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH UVVS AHEAD OF
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
THUS...APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN DEEP LIFT
OCCURRING ALONG THE DRYLINE SHORTLY...WITH SEVERE THREAT INCREASING
IN WEATHER WATCH 132 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CRAVEN.. 03/29/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;310,0984 338,0887 308,0887 280,0984;
ACUS3 KMKC 291126
MKC MCD 291126
TXZ000-291245-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0441 FOR ERN TX/NRN LA/CNTRL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 133...

MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEATHER WATCH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE...AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL ALSO PRODUCE
SMALL TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH 14Z.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX TO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE MAINLY AROUND 500 J/KG...NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL EPISODES ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL MCS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE STRONGEST
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE WEATHER WATCH BY 12Z. HOWEVER...LAST VAD
WIND PROFILE FROM HOUSTON WSR-88D INDICATES THAT 850 MB FLOW HAS
VEERED TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND IS JUST 20 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.
AGAIN...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


..CRAVEN.. 03/29/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN