Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
MUCH OF I INDIANA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BLOOMINGTON INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM SERN MI TO SERN
IL. WITH 30-40KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
STORM MODE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HALES
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
MUCH OF I INDIANA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BLOOMINGTON INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM SERN MI TO SERN
IL. WITH 30-40KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
STORM MODE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 496 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH LE 091740Z - 100000Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ENE MTC/MOUNT CLEMENS MI/ - 55SW BMG/BLOOMINGTON IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /40SE ECK - 44NNE PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 42848052 38588594 38588873 42848348
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 496 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 496
VALID 092045Z - 092140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
..CARBIN..06/09/08
ATTN...WFO...ILX...IWX...IND...ILN...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC023-025-033-035-045-049-079-101-159-092140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD
CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM
JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND
$$
INC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-031-033-035-041-
045-047-049-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-
085-093-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-113-119-121-133-135-139-145-
151-153-157-159-161-165-167-169-171-177-179-183-092140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW
BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN
CARROLL CASS CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DECATUR
DE KALB DELAWARE FAYETTE
FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN FULTON
GRANT GREENE HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON
JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON
KNOX KOSCIUSKO LAWRENCE
MADISON MARION MARTIN
MIAMI MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN NOBLE OWEN
PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH
RUSH SHELBY STEUBEN
SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
UNION VERMILLION VIGO
WABASH WARREN WAYNE
WELLS WHITLEY
$$
MIC059-091-099-115-125-147-161-163-092140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HILLSDALE LENAWEE MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC003-011-037-039-043-051-063-065-069-091-095-107-109-123-125-
135-137-143-147-149-161-171-173-175-092140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AUGLAIZE DARKE
DEFIANCE ERIE FULTON
HANCOCK HARDIN HENRY
LOGAN LUCAS MERCER
MIAMI OTTAWA PAULDING
PREBLE PUTNAM SANDUSKY
SENECA SHELBY VAN WERT
WILLIAMS WOOD WYANDOT
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-444-092140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH
DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE TO US/CANADIAN
BORDER
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5NMM OFF SHORETO US/CANADIAN
BORDER
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
