Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL KANSAS
LARGE PART OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1105 PM UNTIL
600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
AMARILLO TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 491...WW 492...WW
493...WW 494...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
NUMBER/INTENSITY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER ACTIVITY WITH THE
RAMPING UP OF THE LLJ. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 495 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 090405Z - 091100Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50SE AMA/AMARILLO TX/ - 30NNW EMP/EMPORIA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /44SE AMA - 59ESE SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 34700268 38729805 38729472 34709951
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 495 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 495
VALID 090935Z - 091040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CDS TO
35 SSW GAG TO 40 N CSM TO 15 SSE END.
..PETERS..06/09/08
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-039-043-055-057-129-149-091040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER
DEWEY GREER HARMON
ROGER MILLS WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 495
VALID 090825Z - 090940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE AMA
TO 50 E BGD TO 40 SE GAG TO 45 WSW END TO 35 WNW PNC TO 25 NE PNC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294.
..PETERS..06/09/08
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-039-043-047-053-055-057-071-093-129-149-090940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER
DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT
GREER HARMON KAY
MAJOR ROGER MILLS WASHITA
$$
TXC087-129-179-483-090940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 495
VALID 090735Z - 090840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW AMA
TO 30 E BGD TO 30 SSE GAG TO 25 S AVK TO 30 SE P28 TO 25 NE PNC.
..PETERS..06/09/08
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-009-011-039-043-047-053-055-057-071-093-129-149-090840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD
GRANT GREER HARMON
KAY MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WASHITA
$$
TXC011-065-087-129-179-211-381-483-090840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DONLEY GRAY HEMPHILL
RANDALL WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 495
VALID 090645Z - 090740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW GAG
TO 20 NE AVK TO 10 N HUT TO 5 ESE SLN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293.
..PETERS..06/09/08
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-017-019-035-041-049-073-077-079-095-111-113-115-127-155-
169-173-191-090740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
COWLEY DICKINSON ELK
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MORRIS RENO
SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-071-093-129-
149-151-153-090740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
GREER HARMON HARPER
KAY MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-211-233-295-357-375-381-393-483-
090740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 495
VALID 090545Z - 090640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..06/09/08
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-015-017-019-025-033-035-041-049-073-077-079-095-097-111-
113-115-127-151-155-159-169-173-185-191-090640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHASE
CHAUTAUQUA CLARK COMANCHE
COWLEY DICKINSON ELK
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN KIOWA LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS
PRATT RENO RICE
SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD
SUMNER
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-071-093-129-
149-151-153-090640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
GREER HARMON HARPER
KAY MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-211-233-295-357-375-381-393-483-
090640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.