SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 655 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
INTERNATIONAL FALLS MINNESOTA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
BEMIDJI MINNESOTA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 816...
DISCUSSION...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN THIS
EVENING...IN ZONE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FAR WRN MN COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH. MAIN
SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE HIGH WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM SMALL
SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS. BECAUSE LOW LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE STRONGLY LINEAR...AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONG /AOA 50
KTS/...ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR SOME TIME.
WHILE THIS COULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT...WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND TIME OF DAY SUGGEST THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 22045.
...CORFIDI
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