SPC AC 050739

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern
   Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone
   Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central
   CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave
   perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado
   into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in
   agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High
   Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts
   of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point
   and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at
   least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying
   early morning convection.

   ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas...
   Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period 
   in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of
   diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the
   afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F
   dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy
   (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is
   how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS
   reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM
   developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning
   convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong
   northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can
   be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS,
   15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas.

   ...South Texas...
   Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the
   lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With
   dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear
   strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk
   is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning.

   ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024

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