SPC AC 030742

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER
   OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper
   Ohio Valley on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through
   the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend
   westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will
   approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a
   cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with
   the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern
   Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes
   surface low into the Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity...
   Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of
   destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe
   storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday
   afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass
   (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount
   of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind
   gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe
   hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional
   supercell structures.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will
   be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more
   nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm
   development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in
   a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident,
   marginal severe probabilities could be needed.

   ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z