SPC AC 290744

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the
   northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South
   Dakota.

   ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest...
   A mid/upper-level trough is expected to overspread the region with
   appreciable height falls, particularly by early summertime
   standards, as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is
   forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. The
   influences of early day convection will probably be a modulating
   factor and point of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should
   effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very
   rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of a weak cold
   front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup may materialize
   across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early
   evening, and possibly into parts of South Dakota. Seasonally strong
   deep-layer shear will support potentially intense supercells, with a
   risk for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into
   the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk
   potentially reaching parts of Minnesota and Iowa Monday night.

   ...Southeast States...
   Some strong to locally severe storms capable of wind damage may
   occur Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately
   unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front.
   Current thinking is that this risk is most probable across southern
   South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida.

   ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z