SPC AC 270730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH
   INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of
   the upper Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday.

   ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast...
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are
   forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec
   on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward
   across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more MCVs
   may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts
   of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing
   from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the
   Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of
   the Northeast by Sunday morning. 

   Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward
   along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong
   southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to
   remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating
   could support moderate to locally strong buoyancy by mid/late
   afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on
   destabilization remains rather uncertain. 

   Scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon from OH
   into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the
   trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be
   sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or
   organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the
   afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging
   wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, in the presence of rich
   moisture and somewhat favorable low-level shear/SRH. 

   A Slight Risk has been added from OH into western PA. Some expansion
   of this risk area is possible with time, depending on extent of
   destabilization farther east, and storm coverage farther southwest. 

   ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains...
   Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along
   the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern
   OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest
   veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the
   front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains
   somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be
   possible, with a threat of localized severe gusts and possibly some
   hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a
   post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High
   Plains.

   ..Dean.. 06/27/2024

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