SPC AC 300727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday from
   parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
   northern Plains during the day, and across the upper MS Valley into
   Friday morning, becoming negatively tilted. Meanwhile, the primary
   surface low is expected to move from eastern NE across IA and into
   WI, with a secondary trough extending northwestward across MN and
   ND. Extending south of the low, a cold front will stretch from IA
   into OK during the afternoon, with a plume of low to mid 60s F
   dewpoints ahead of the front. Southwesterly winds of 40+ kt at 850
   will aid warming and destabilization across IA and northern IL
   during the day as a warm front lifts north.  To the south, a dryline
   will remain over west-central Texas, with a very moist and unstable
   air mass to the east.

   ...Upper MS Valley into KS/MO...
   Substantial/ongoing rain and thunderstorms are expected Thursday
   morning from the front/outflow near the NE/IA border northeastward
   along and north of the warm front across IA, southern MN and WI.
   Predictability in terms of placement is low, but any ongoing MCS may
   be capable of strong to locally severe gusts, and marginal hail
   cannot be ruled out north of the warm front with 1000+ MUCAPE.
   Additional storms may develop southward along the front into KS and
   MO during the day with the help of heating. However, the ejecting
   wave to the north will tend to limit large-scale support with
   southward extent. Still, areas of gusty winds or marginal hail will
   be possible. 

   ...OK into TX...
   Heating along the dryline, and perhaps ahead of the sagging cold
   front, will likely yield scattered daytime storms, though shear will
   be relatively weak over OK. Stronger high-level winds will exist
   over TX beneath the southern-stream jet extending northeastward out
   of Mexico, and this may favor a few storms with large hail along the
   dryline in TX. Cool midlevel temperatures and straight hodographs
   will also favor hail. A small/targeted Slight Risk could be added
   for parts of the TX dryline in later outlooks as predictability
   increases.

   ..Jewell.. 04/30/2024

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