SPC AC 290730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
   central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be
   possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to
   large to very large hail and damaging winds.

   ...Synopsis...
   In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper
   Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly
   eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is
   forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich
   low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm
   sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon,
   while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border.
   Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may
   overspread parts of west/southwest TX. 

   ...Parts of the central/southern Plains...
   A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will
   likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and
   supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm
   coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however.

   Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with
   dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong
   destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm
   front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain
   relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind
   profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt,
   sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong
   instability. 

   The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm
   diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima
   expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated
   storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing
   storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening.
   Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and
   tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet
   increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible
   Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong
   low-level jet. 

   Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support
   a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central
   TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has
   been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial
   isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into
   Wednesday evening as they move eastward.

   ..Dean.. 04/29/2024

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