SPC AC 270729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
   from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi
   Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is
   forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In
   its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move
   across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and
   related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward
   the northern Rockies by Monday evening. 

   ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley...
   A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region
   Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the
   approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression
   of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization
   remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging
   wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley
   through the day. 

   ...Parts of central/south TX...
   An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early
   Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east.
   This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by
   afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While
   stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong
   heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong
   destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible.
   Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization,
   so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and
   isolated severe gusts. 

   ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes
   region...
   A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH
   Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach
   parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate
   deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front,
   destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness
   and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two
   cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding
   the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at
   this time.

   ..Dean.. 04/27/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z