Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Duncan, OK...Altus, OK...Chickasha, OK...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
40,805
649,727
Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Duncan, OK...Altus, OK...Chickasha, OK...
SPC AC 210716
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong wind
gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the southern
Plains.
...Southern Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build into the Rockies
on Tuesday. At the surface, a slow-moving front should be located
from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward across Oklahoma
into the Ozarks. Surface dewpoints near the front are forecast to be
near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of
instability is forecast to develop across northwest Texas and
southwestern Oklahoma. Within this pocket of instability, forecast
soundings for 00Z/Wednesday have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 40 knots of
effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates above 8 C/km. This would
support an isolated severe threat. However, a shallow capping
inversion is evident around 750 mb. This will likely keep convective
initiation very isolated, making any severe threat conditional.
..Broyles.. 04/21/2024
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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