SPC AC 150724

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon
   to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley
   into the Mid-South.

   ...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South...
   Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday
   morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite
   weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer
   shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe
   of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should
   spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level
   warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z
   Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting
   the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential
   for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate
   MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests
   early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold
   front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of
   all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and
   multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected
   near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume
   should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch
   off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields
   into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk.

   ..Grams.. 04/15/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z