SPC AC 140732

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA
   AND NORTHERN MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday
   night across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to
   the Ark-La-Tex. The most concentrated corridor of significant severe
   hail and tornadoes is forecast over southern Iowa into northern
   Missouri from mid-afternoon to early evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located near the central
   KS/NE border area Tuesday morning. This cyclone should gradually
   progress east-northeast across the Mid-MO Valley before beginning to
   weaken over IA early Wednesday. An initially intense mid-level
   jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark
   Plateau into northeast MO by afternoon, before weakening as it
   shifts east across the Mid-MS to Lower OH Valleys. The initially
   north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface cyclone
   will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its
   trailing portion slowing and then stalling near the Ark-La-Tex.

   ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys...
   Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a
   synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening
   supercells is evident. Pronounced boundary-layer heating is expected
   west of the Pacific cold front that will effectively function as
   more of a dryline. There is moderate uncertainty over the degree of
   heating ahead of it, in the wake of early-day convection. But with a
   plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave
   trough overspreading the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist
   sector during the afternoon, moderate buoyancy should develop. This
   coupled with backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile
   with height should support supercells capable of producing
   significant severe hail and tornadoes. How long and far
   east-southeast this threat will last into the evening will likely be
   modulated by the degree of afternoon boundary-layer heating that can
   occur. 

   ...Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South...
   Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong and another day of
   boundary-layer moistening from the western Gulf should yield a
   broadening corridor of severe potential that may linger through much
   of the period. As the surface front stalls, it appears that
   low-level warm theta-e advection coupled with outflows from
   early-day convection will serve as the foci for regenerative storm
   development. A mix of all hazards appears possible, with at least a
   SLGT-risk worthy tornado threat. Parts of this region may warrant
   higher severe probabilities in later outlooks as mesoscale
   convective details become more clear.

   ..Grams.. 04/14/2024

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