SPC AC 130730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to
   central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very
   large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are
   possible.

   ...Central/southern Great Plains...
   A shortwave trough should be centered on the southeast Great Basin
   at 12Z Monday. Guidance is converging to multiple embedded impulses
   ejecting east across the southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto
   the central to southern High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This
   fragmented evolution and consistently slower timing of ejection onto
   the Plains appears less phased with the peak diurnal heating cycle,
   suggesting convective development will be later and slightly farther
   west than in prior outlook cycles. The southern and more vigorous of
   the impulses will still yield substantial tropospheric flow
   amplification as an intense mid-level jet evolves across northwest
   TX into southern KS Monday night. 

   Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains
   Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z
   Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf,
   while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep.
   Still, there is consensus that a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew
   points should be advected ahead of the dryline across much of
   western OK into western north TX and the eastern Panhandles. Dryline
   initiation in this corridor may be delayed until after 00Z. More
   widespread convective development should occur Monday night,
   especially as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. The
   relatively confined surface-based buoyancy plume and nocturnal MLCIN
   with southern/eastern extent suggest initial supercells will
   probably consolidate into multiple smaller clusters rather than an
   extensive QLCS. Large to very large hail appears to be the
   overarching threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates and
   supercell wind profiles. The tornado threat will likely be focused
   where low-level moisture is relatively greater and discrete
   supercell mode can be maintained, seemingly centered around the
   northwest TX and western OK vicinity. A swath or two of greater
   damaging wind potential may evolve overnight given the amplification
   of the flow regime, but will be modulated by weakening instability.

   ..Grams.. 04/13/2024

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