SPC AC 120728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PA TO EAST
   IN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, mainly from
   late afternoon into the evening, across Pennsylvania to eastern
   Indiana.

   ...PA to eastern IN...
   A mid-level jetlet attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse
   should progress across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario into New
   England by Sunday evening. To its south-southwest, a pronounced
   elevated mixed layer across the Midwest and southern Great Lakes
   will shift southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States.
   This elevated mixed layer will likely cap surface-based convection
   until peak heating along a southeast-sagging cold front. 00Z NAM
   soundings appear relatively reasonable with this evolution as
   modified low-level moisture return emanating from the southern Great
   Plains struggles to reduce MLCIN until cooling aloft spreads in from
   the west-northwest. 

   MLCAPE should eventually reach 500-1000 J/kg over IN/OH, with
   progressively weaker values over PA. Hodographs across the region
   should be dominated by low-level curvature enlargement, with little
   speed or directional shear component above that within the buoyancy
   layer. Seemingly, a west/east-oriented cluster along the front
   should develop by late afternoon to early evening and move south
   with the undercutting front, while embedded cells attempt to
   parallel the deep-layer west-northwesterly flow regime. This setup
   appears to favor low probabilities across each of the hazards into
   Sunday evening. The western extent of the threat into IN will likely
   be modulated by progressively greater MLCIN that may not be
   eliminated prior to frontal passage.

   ..Grams.. 04/12/2024

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