SPC AC 191730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
   CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
   of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on
   Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the
   High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather
   broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside
   from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern
   will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is
   forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak
   surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains.

   ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
   As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger
   mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the
   southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much
   destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to
   potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in
   from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early
   convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a
   weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable
   in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the
   afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally
   organized convection capable of damaging winds.

   ...Raton Mesa Vicinity...
   Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will
   rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from
   the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture
   is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level
   lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts.
   Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow
   dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts
   of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some
   uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears
   high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities.

   ...Kansas/western Oklahoma...
   Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association
   with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast
   Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is
   possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma.
   While this may provide some focus for storm development during the
   afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity
   and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm
   initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too
   uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities.

   ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024

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