SPC AC 080545

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or
   tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley
   tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are
   also possible over portions of New England.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will translate northeastward from the MS Valley
   to the OH Valley through the day tomorrow (Tuesday) while a
   mid-level ridge continues to build over the Interior West. Given
   rich low-level moisture along and east of the MS River and ahead of
   the upper trough, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with
   isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Intermountain West,
   driven by mainly orographic lift. A stray wet downburst is possible
   across any of the aforementioned regimes. However, a relatively
   greater chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms exists
   with the remnants of Beryl across the OH Valley, as well as with
   stronger storms embedded in the stronger flow aloft over parts of
   New England.

   ...OH Valley...
   The remnants of Beryl will track northeast from the mid-MS Valley to
   the OH Valley while merging with the mid-level trough through the
   period. At least low to mid 70s F dewpoints should advect northward
   ahead of the surface cyclone (characterizing Beryl's remnants),
   helping to boost surface-based instability to a degree. 20+ kts of
   low-level southerly flow associated with the surface cyclone will be
   overspread by 30-40 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the
   mid-level trough, contributing to sizable, curved hodographs. As
   such, multicells and supercells are possible in the warm sector
   across portions of the OH Valley, as also depicted by several
   high-resolution CAM guidance members. While such conditions would be
   favorable for damaging gusts and multiple brief tornadoes, concerns
   remain regarding how unstable the warm sector will become.
   Tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be quite poor (4.5-5.5
   C/km), likely limiting MLCAPE to well below 1000 J/kg. Category
   1/Marginal Risk probabilities have been maintained given buoyancy
   concerns, though higher severe probabilities may be needed in later
   outlooks if a mesoscale corridor of locally higher buoyancy,
   coinciding with stronger low-level shear, can be ascertained. Based
   on guidance trends, such a corridor (if it materializes) would most
   likely be located somewhere along the OH River. 

   ...Portions of New England...
   Up to 50 kts of 500 mb westerly flow is expected to overspread much
   of New England tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, contributing to
   elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer
   shear. Guidance shows that at least one small perturbation embedded
   in the stronger flow aloft should traverse New England by afternoon
   peak heating, encouraging storm development amid 500-1000 J/kg of
   tall, thin CAPE. The straight, elongated hodographs suggest
   multicells and brief, transient supercell structures will be the
   likely storm modes, where a strong wind gust or two, along with some
   hail, are possible with the stronger storms.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/08/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z