SPC AC 061731

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
   TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
   TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern
   Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone
   Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central
   Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast
   early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall
   ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place
   throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the
   upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it.
   TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the
   subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL,
   with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle
   TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. 

   A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border
   intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward
   from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across
   the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern
   Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the
   more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass
   associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will
   remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some
   modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains
   amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an
   additional surge of more continental air will likely progress
   southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains.

   Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across
   the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over
   western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with
   Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with
   thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the
   Southeast and Carolinas as well.

   ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas...
   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from
   southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air
   advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually
   shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of
   the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow
   associated with these storms as well as along the front and
   associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm
   development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon.
   Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
   combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate
   to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening
   development. 

   Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially
   cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close
   storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm
   structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large
   hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms.
   Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles
   will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential
   for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This
   could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where
   this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how
   the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty
   precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook.

   ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS...
   Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the
   higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level
   moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated
   hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress
   southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX
   Panhandle.

   ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast...
   Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward
   into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow
   increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a
   tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within
   these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but
   thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts
   are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the
   middle TX Coast).

   ...Southern MN into northern WI...
   Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of
   the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward
   across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger
   mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be
   modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated
   strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging
   gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage
   precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook.

   ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024

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