SPC AC 021701

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across
   parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern
   and central Plains.

   ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley...

   A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across
   the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of
   strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great
   Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer
   moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley
   region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across
   the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern
   MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early
   day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To
   the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F
   and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will
   foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt
   effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe
   thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during
   the afternoon and early evening.

   ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity...

   Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are
   expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern
   Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High
   Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped
   west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary,
   south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F
   dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern
   CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints
   are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal
   airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will
   support moderate to strong destabilization.

   Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes
   greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near
   the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO.
   This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in
   additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved
   low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early
   evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With
   time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a
   modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in
   more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development,
   shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest
   NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing,
   higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

   Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK
   where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall
   more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be
   present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts.

   ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024

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