SPC AC 081735

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
   TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across
   parts of central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Thursday afternoon
   and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind
   potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi
   Valley and Southeast.

   ...East TX to South Carolina...

   Most guidance is in agreement that an MCS will be ongoing Thursday
   morning in the vicinity of northeast AL into northern GA. The
   expectation is that this MCS will develop southeast toward southeast
   GA/far southern SC through the day. Maintenance of this system
   should be supported by a shortwave impulse migrating across the
   region with 40 kt of 850-700 mb southwesterly flow overspreading a
   very moist airmass. Downstream destabilization ahead of the MCS
   across central/southern GA and perhaps portions of eastern AL is
   forecast, with MLCAPE to near 2500 J/kg expected. Both GFS and NAM
   forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates develop amid
   strong heating into the 80s F. Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates
   around 7 C/km and elongated hodographs are present. Severe/damaging
   wind potential will be the main concern given expected bowing
   convective mode. However, should any more discrete convection
   develop, a risk for large hail and a tornadoes also will be present
   given an environment capable of supporting supercells. 

   Further east, a cluster of supercells is expected to develop across
   north TX southward toward the Hill Country in the vicinity of the
   intersecting dryline and cold front. Strong to extreme instability
   (3500+ MLCAPE) is anticipated amid a plume of very steep midlevel
   lapse rates. This will support intense updraft development amid 40+
   kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs.
   Very large hail (2-3 inch diameter) will be possible with these
   storms. Steep low-level lapse rates, large CAPE and water-loaded
   downdrafts also will support damaging wind potential. 

   With time, the damaging wind risk will increase as clustering
   occurs.  Most guidance generates an eastward propagating MCS from
   the east TX cluster, moving across northern LA into MS/AL during the
   evening/nighttime hours. This activity is expected to move along the
   gradient of strong to extreme instability across this region ahead
   of the southeastward progressing cold front. Some potential will
   exist for significant gusts (to near 75 mph).

   ...North Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

   Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the Chesapeake
   Bay vicinity southward to far eastern NC. Nevertheless, weak
   destabilization/airmass recovery is forecast by afternoon. Isolated
   to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Upper
   Ohio Valley eastward across parts of VA/NC ahead of the
   south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Locally strong gusts and
   small hail will be possible with this activity.

   ..Leitman.. 05/08/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z