SPC AC 070600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday
   across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi,
   Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including
   tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur.
   Some of the tornadoes may be strong.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper cyclone initially over the northern Plains on Wednesday
   should gradually move towards the Upper Midwest through the period.
   A separate shortwave trough over the Great Lakes is forecast to
   advance eastward across NY and New England. A broad 50-70 kt
   mid-level west-southwesterly jet should remain over the
   southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley, OH Valley/Midwest,
   and Northeast. This jet will aid in rather strong deep-layer shear
   across much of these regions.

   At the surface, a weak low over OK should develop northeastward to
   the mid MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon in tandem with a lobe of
   mid-level vorticity/ascent also spreading northeastward over this
   region. An attendant cold front should move east-southeastward
   across the southern/central Plains, with a dryline extending
   southward from central into south TX. A warm front should attempt to
   lift northward through the day across MO and southern IL/IN/OH. But,
   how far north the warm front will be able to lift northward remains
   rather uncertain. All of these boundaries should provide a focus for
   potential severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and
   evening.

   ...ArkLaTex into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley...
   A large area of significant severe potential remains evident across
   these regions on Wednesday. Across the broad warm sector, upper 60s
   to mid 70s surface dewpoints should generally prevail. Even modest
   daytime heating of this very moist low-level air, acting in concert
   with steepened mid-level lapse rates spreading eastward from the
   southern/central Plains, will foster around 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE
   by Wednesday afternoon. Some locally higher/more extreme instability
   values will be possible. With enhanced flow associated with the
   previously mentioned mid-level jet, effective bulk shear of 40-50+
   kt will easily support organized severe thunderstorms, including the
   potential for numerous supercells and intense bowing line segments.

   Based on latest guidance trends showing the warm front stalling/not
   making as much northward progress into the OH Valley, the northern
   extent of the higher severe probabilities has been trimmed some
   across this area. Otherwise, very large hail appears probable with
   initial development along the cold front and warm front, which may
   begin across MO as early as mid Wednesday morning. Additional
   supercell development may also occur along/near the warm front by
   early Wednesday afternoon across parts of the mid MS Valley into the
   lower OH Valley. In addition to the large/very large hail threat, a
   concern for tornadoes also exists with this warm-frontal activity
   given ample 0-1 km shear to support low-level updraft rotation. Some
   of these tornadoes could be strong given the forecast strength of
   the low-level shear. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds
   is also apparent through the late afternoon, and likely continuing
   into at least the early evening, as convection should attempt to
   grow upscale into one or more intense bowing clusters. With that
   said, convective evolution is somewhat uncertain, and attempting to
   pinpoint areas of greater severe-wind potential remains difficult.

   ...Iowa and Vicinity...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible in
   associated with a cold-core upper low across parts of IA and
   vicinity, mainly Wednesday afternoon. Although forecast instability
   and deep-layer shear appear fairly weak/marginal, a few instances of
   hail and strong/gusty winds appear possible. A brief tornado or two
   may also occur along/near the occluded front.

   ...Southern New England into NY and the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
   Occasional hail and strong to locally damaging winds appear possible
   with isolated thunderstorms across parts of NY into southern New
   England as a surface low and attendant cold front move eastward
   through the day. Farther south into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas,
   greater instability is forecast. But, better forcing should
   generally remain displaced to the west. It remains unclear how many
   thunderstorms will form. Still, any that do could become strong to
   locally severe.

   ..Gleason.. 05/07/2024

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