SPC AC 271730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the
   upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few
   tornadoes, will all be possible.

   ...Summary...
   A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east
   northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS
   Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant
   surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing
   south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a
   focus for renewed convective development behind one or more
   complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging
   winds and a few tornadoes are possible.

   ...East TX into the upper MS Valley...
   With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to
   upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to
   severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over
   the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these
   storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general
   decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a
   few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours
   with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO.
   With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or
   clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be
   the most likely threat. 

   Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead
   of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and
   southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve
   with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution
   is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection
   limiting the extent of the warm sector.

   Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR,
   redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to
   mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast,
   low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support
   weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A
   deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F
   dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
   However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in
   combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear
   profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments.
   Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation
   with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few
   tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more
   linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging
   winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear
   clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through
   the overnight hours.

   ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic...
   A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening
   from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front.
   Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through
   the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe
   threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a
   few stronger storms.

   ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024

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