SPC AC 230550

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of
   Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the
   primary hazards.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough initially off of the southern CA/Baja coast is
   forecast to move inland on Wednesday, reaching the Southwest by
   Thursday morning. A nearly stationary front is forecast to be draped
   from west/north TX into parts of the lower MS Valley, with weak
   surface troughing expected over the central/southern Plains. Across
   the east, an upper-level trough is forecast to move through parts of
   the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, as an attendant
   cold front sweeps through New England. Low-topped convection with
   locally gusty winds could accompany the front during the afternoon. 

   ...Parts of the southern Great Plains...
   An uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained from parts of west TX
   into OK, with some adjustments made based on latest guidance. 

   Elevated convection may develop or be ongoing across parts of OK
   Wednesday morning, within a zone of low-level warm advection along
   the northeastern fringe of moderate elevated buoyancy. Any such
   convection will tend to move southeastward through the day, north of
   stationary front. Steep midlevel lapse rates and marginally
   supportive effective shear (for convection likely based between
   800-700 mb) could support an isolated hail/wind risk with any
   stronger semi-discrete storms. 

   Farther west, generally weak forcing will likely tend to limit
   coverage of diurnal surface-based storms. However, rather strong
   heating and diminishing MLCINH could support isolated development
   across areas of west/northwest TX near the stationary front, and
   southward along a weakly convergent surface trough/dryline. Moderate
   to locally strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will
   result in a conditionally favorable environment, and an isolated
   supercell or two could evolve if storms can mature, with a threat
   for hail and localized severe gusts. 

   Finally, another round of elevated convection may develop from
   northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as
   deeper moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching
   upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective
   shear could support an isolated hail threat within this regime. 

   ...Southeast OK toward the ArkLaMiss region...
   Modest buoyancy may develop near/south of the nearly stationary
   front from southeast OK into the ArkLaMiss Wednesday afternoon.
   Elevated convection could spread southeastward north of the boundary
   through the day within a weak northwesterly flow regime, while
   isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the
   boundary. Uncertainty remains regarding the intensity and coverage
   of convection across this region, but a strong storm or two cannot
   be ruled out into early evening.

   ..Dean.. 04/23/2024

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