Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Saginaw, MI...Midland, MI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
56,274
1,946,534
Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Saginaw, MI...Midland, MI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
55,333
1,901,553
Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Saginaw, MI...Midland, MI...
SPC AC 221702
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts
of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far
southwest Oklahoma, and over parts of Lower Michigan.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Tuesday, a northwest flow regime will exist from the Rockies to
the East Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the
upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and OH Valley. Temporary ridging will
occur over the Great Basin before a deep upper trough provides
height falls into CA late.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered over GA and SC, which
will produce dry and stable conditions for much of the region. South
of the high, low-level moisture trajectories will extend from the
Bahamas across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 50s dewpoints
spreading north into central TX and OK. Another area of high
pressure will exist over the northern High Plains, with a surface
trough generally from Lake Huron to northwest TX during the
afternoon.
Low pressure will exist ahead of the northern trough near Lake
Huron, with another developing low over the TX Panhandle/South
Plains area, just south of a front. This front will extend
northeastward from the low across OK, southern MO, and to the OH
Valley, with instability focused over northwest TX. Minimal
instability may also develop over Lower MI.
...Northwest TX and Vicinity...
Strong heating will occur near the developing low and south of the
southwest-northeast oriented front. Weak northwest flow aloft will
couple with veering low-level winds to favor a few severe storms
capable of hail and strong gusts near peak heating. Forecast
soundings reveal straight hodographs, which will favor cellular
storm mode. Steep lapse rates will favor hail while the deeply mixed
boundary layer supports strong outflow as well.
...Lower Michigan...
Strong midlevel cooling will occur across the upper Great Lakes
region as the upper trough pushes southeast. Combined with daytime
heating, this will yield very steep lapse rates which will favor
strong storms despite only 40s F dewpoints. Convergence along the
front looks to be favorably timed with peak heating, with scattered
low-topped storms expected. Given very cold 500 mb temperatures to
-25 C, hail will be likely, with a few storms perhaps capable of
hail to severe levels.
..Jewell.. 04/22/2024
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