Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Altus, OK...Mineral Wells, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
33,741
680,305
Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Altus, OK...Mineral Wells, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
33,693
687,590
Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Altus, OK...Mineral Wells, TX...
SPC AC 220544
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts
of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far
southwest Oklahoma.
...Southern Plains...
An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as
mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern
Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across
western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front,
surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across
northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during
the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE
expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings
on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place.
However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be
enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form
would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer
shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for
isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would
also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe
threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the
early evening.
..Broyles.. 04/22/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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