SPC AC 141742

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
   NORTH TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to
   central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very
   large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are
   possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is
   forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central
   Plains region through the period.  As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis
   will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and
   drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level
   moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for
   severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout
   elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become
   common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by
   evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the
   central Plains.

   ...Central/southern Plains...
   Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected
   as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of
   capping in place across much of the warm sector.  Fairly widespread
   development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and
   arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the
   Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with
   northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably
   strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating
   storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind
   gusts.  Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail
   appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and
   portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm
   front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. 
   Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with
   a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible
   with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. 

   A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX
   along the dryline within the deeply mixed air.  Stout capping should
   limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become
   supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely.  Mid-level
   height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday
   night, which should result in greater convective development
   overnight.  Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with
   this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of
   tornadoes.  Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage
   will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in
   later forecasts.

   ...VA/NC...
   A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. 
   Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just
   south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed
   layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to
   scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late
   afternoon.  Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on
   the southern fringe of the stronger  mid-level jet to the north. 
   Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few
   multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail
   initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread
   southeast before weakening later in the evening.

   ..Goss.. 04/14/2024

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