SPC AC 140555

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN OK
   AND A PART OF NORTHWEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to
   central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very
   large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are
   possible.

   ...Central/southern Great Plains...
   A shortwave trough will be centered on the southeast Great Basin at
   12Z Monday. Multiple embedded impulses will eject east across the
   southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto the central to southern
   High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This fragmented evolution and
   timing of ejection onto the southern High Plains appears ill-timed
   with the peak diurnal heating cycle. The southern/more vigorous of
   the impulses will yield substantial tropospheric flow amplification
   as a mid-level jetlet in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb evolves across
   the southern TX Panhandle into south KS Monday night. 

   Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains
   by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through
   12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest
   Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or
   deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew
   points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of
   the dryline by evening with low 60s to upper 50s with northern
   extent in the central Great Plains.

   Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development will
   probably be bimodal, with more probable convection across the
   central High Plains arcing east-southeast along the surface warm
   front into the Mid-MO Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will be less
   with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a
   meridional to backed wind profile should be conducive to large hail
   and isolated severe wind gusts. Along the warm front into the Mid-MO
   Valley, most development should remain on the cool side of the
   surface warm front amid northeast storm motions, but there will be
   the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a
   tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail. 

   A separate corridor of a few storms should form in west TX along the
   dryline within the deeply mixed air owing to a stout capping
   inversion across the warm-moist sector where mid/upper-level
   cloudiness should temper insolation. Mid-level height falls and
   tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night. 00Z NCEP
   guidance outside of the GFS suggest minimal to isolated convective
   coverage should be expected until near the end of the period, while
   the ECMWF remains consistent with earlier runs depicting
   substantially greater convective development overnight. While this
   lowers confidence in the degree of supercell coverage amid robust
   MLCIN with southeast extent in OK/TX, have maintained level 3-ENH
   risk where the conditional threat for strong supercells is greatest.

   ...VA/NC...
   A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday,
   with a ribbon of modest boundary-layer moisture along it. Strong
   insolation will occur ahead of it into NC, yielding a deeply mixed
   boundary layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for
   isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon.
   Moderate mid-level flow will be present and increase in height
   within the peripheral influence of a strong jet across parts of the
   Great Lakes into southern New England. Amid steep mid-level lapse
   rates, overall setup should support a few multicells capable of
   marginally severe hail initially, and strong to marginally severe
   wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening after dusk.

   ..Grams.. 04/14/2024

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