SPC AC 251728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may
   persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate
   area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially
   developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and
   southern Great Lakes.

   ...Synopsis...
   Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the
   CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will
   extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing
   cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX
   Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes.
   Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large
   troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period
   over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move
   quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon,
   accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb).
   Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move
   northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into
   northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep
   quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper
   Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. 

   Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday
   morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from
   middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward
   progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it
   stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening.

   ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle...
   Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into
   coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning.
   Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest
   AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with
   some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or
   two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist
   into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across
   southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as
   mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across
   these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime
   heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a
   gradually diminishing storm intensity.

   ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... 
   Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead
   of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower
   MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is
   expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level
   moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination
   of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold
   mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected
   to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow
   thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it
   interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during
   the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward
   throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to
   mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear
   vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These
   factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts,
   particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be
   enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited
   storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm
   organization.

   ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024

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