SPC AC 051942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

   Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early
   evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the
   Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the
   primary severe hazard.

   ...20z Update...

   Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the
   Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These
   changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as
   well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain
   the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into
   the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous
   discussion below for more details.

   Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and
   eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across
   northeast NM, reference MCD 1540.

   ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/

   ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians...
   Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and
   modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward
   toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary,
   although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward
   extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength
   westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early
   evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and
   far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee.

   Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe
   storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the
   southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail
   threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the
   upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with
   steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts
   will be the main severe risk overall.

   ...Eastern New Mexico...
   The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger
   northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope
   flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated
   storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to
   mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000
   J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of
   storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few
   supercell structures.  Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the
   stronger thunderstorms.

   ...Montana...
   A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern
   Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana,
   and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample
   heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to
   500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few
   strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally
   severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early
   evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening.

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