Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...
MARGINAL
337,796
20,708,756
Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
28,006
6,176,337
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
112,135
15,975,037
Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...
5 %
337,458
20,767,328
Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
352,635
16,852,718
Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Colorado Springs, CO...
SPC AC 010105
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of wind damage will continue for a few more
hours in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated large hail and
severe/damaging winds remain possible this evening in parts of
central/eastern Montana into perhaps far western North Dakota.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Convection has largely moved offshore, though scattered storms still
remain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Modest mid-level lapse
rates and around 35-40 kts of effective shear (sampled by the 00Z
IAD sounding) suggest damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail
will remain possible into at least the mid evening.
...Montana/western North Dakota...
A mid-level trough continues to move across the northern Rockies.
Convection continues to develop within the terrain areas of western
Montana. Storms have generally struggled to maintain intensity,
however. MLCIN remains present in eastern Montana and western North
Dakota. The overall longevity of convection, as well as coverage,
remains uncertain. An increase in the low-level jet this evening
could help maintain some activity into the mid/late evening.
Severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail are the main risks.
...Central High Plains Vicinity...
Continued stronger flow across the Rockies around the upper-level
ridge will continue to foster scattered strong to severe storms this
evening. The strongest storms will likely be in parts of eastern
Colorado where low 60s F dewpoints remain. Large hail and severe
winds are possible with this activity.
...Arizona...
Scattered storms have developed within an area of strong heating in
southeastern Arizona. An MCV evident on visible satellite also has
likely aided in convective development and modest organization this
afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe wind gusts remain possible.
Convection/outflow may try to push westward toward Phoenix where
temperatures remain in the low 100s F.
..Wendt.. 07/01/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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