SPC AC 291956

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF 
   THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE 
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS......

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible
   today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and
   Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and
   evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent
   south-central High Plains.

   ...20Z Update...
   Extended the Slight Risk westward toward Indiana due to ongoing
   severe cluster of storms, and an extremely moist air mass ahead of
   it. GPS PWAT values exceed 2.25" over much of the area, and
   low-level lapse rates continue to steepen just south, which should
   support corridors of damaging wind.

   Farther east, tornado watch 482 remains in effect from eastern OH
   into PA and toward the NY border. Scattered storms persist, and
   southwesterly low-level winds will aid theta-e advection into the
   region. In addition, 0-1 km SRH remains favorable at over 150 m2/s2
   from OH to central PA, with stronger values up to 300 m2/s2 into NY
   where the air mass is less unstable. As such, stronger cells
   developing this afternoon may acquire rotation with tornado
   potential.

   Overnight, the strong shortwave trough will move across southwest
   Ontario, skirting the Lake Ontario area and into northern NY. Given
   the strength of the trough, and forecast theta-e advection around
   850 mb ahead of the system, additional nocturnal storms producing
   wind or hail will be possible.

   ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/

   ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
   A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of
   northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and
   eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period,
   current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in
   coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western
   PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness
   across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some
   extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level
   airmass should support at least weak instability by late this
   afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong
   for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a
   concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward
   across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A
   couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or
   embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more
   details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV
   and western PA.

   There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to
   develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps
   associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial
   cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front.
   But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing
   isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including
   this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust
   convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the
   wake of earlier thunderstorm activity.

   ...Ozarks...
   A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern
   MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection,
   along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward
   across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a
   focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is
   forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of
   the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most
   12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection
   developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and
   early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing
   mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward
   through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur.

   ...Southern/Central High Plains...
   No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the
   southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
   to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak
   post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s
   surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a
   narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While
   mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind
   profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support
   sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and
   loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of
   southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible
   with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through
   diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores.

   ...Michigan...
   Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak
   mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume
   of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this
   afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation.
   This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail
   and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI.
   But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to
   remain rather limited across this area.

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