Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
8,885
1,670,680
Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...Lawrence, KS...
2 %
96,915
3,477,225
Kansas City, MO...Des Moines, IA...Independence, MO...Columbia, MO...St. Joseph, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
44,369
2,742,656
Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
15 %
110,923
5,092,784
Kansas City, MO...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
SPC AC 290100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of
tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great
Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley.
...01Z Update...
Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70
corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced
measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus
far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by
the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective
bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering
through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further
discussion of the expected hazards.
Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the
surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe
threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the
central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer
buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be
maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains
baroclinic zone.
Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest
of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm
activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND
towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear,
weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the
surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk.
..Grams.. 06/29/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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