SPC AC 151630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

   Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OK AND
   SOUTHERN KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENHANCED AREA...AND OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX...SC/SOUTHERN NC...AND
   CENTRAL FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains this
   afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind gusts, large hail,
   and perhaps a tornado or two. Scattered severe thunderstorms are
   also possible through this afternoon over parts of the
   central/northern Florida Peninsula, as well as the Carolinas.

   ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
   Along and south of a slow moving front across southern NC, surface
   heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F are
   contributing to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and minimal convective
   inhibition.  Thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon
   along/south of the front into the warm sector, in advance of
   embedded perturbations rotating around the southeast periphery of a
   midlevel trough approaching the southern Appalachians.  Mostly
   straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt will favor
   a mix of organized clusters and/or supercells capable of producing
   large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70
   mph.

   ...Central FL today...
   Convection is ongoing along and north of a diffuse outflow boundary
   across central FL, as well as upstream over the eastern Gulf of
   Mexico.  VWPs from TBW/MLB/JAX show largely unidirectional,
   west-southwesterly wind profiles with straight hodographs, in an
   environment with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.  Central FL will be along
   the southern periphery of the southern Appalachians midlevel trough
   with modest forcing for ascent near its peak this afternoon.  It
   appears the strongest storms, which will include a mix of
   supercells/clusters, will tend to remain along the southern fringe
   of the ongoing convection, with more uncertainty farther north based
   on more extensive cloud cover.  The strongest storms will be capable
   of producing large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and 60-70 mph
   outflow winds.

   ...Southern Plains this afternoon into tonight...
   A shallow, moist boundary layer is returning to south TX, but areas
   farther to the north will rely on residual low-level moisture and
   evapotranspiration from moist soil and green vegetation to boost
   boundary-layer dewpoints into the 50s/low 60s.  Weak perturbations
   will move eastward from northern NM and CO toward the TX
   Panhandle/northwest OK/KS, along a weak front from central KS to the
   TX Panhandle.  Strong surface heating along and south of the front
   will drive a deepening mixed layer, while there will be sufficient
   moisture/steep midlevel lapse rates to support MLCAPE of 1000-2000
   J/kg.  The moderate buoyancy and inverted-V profiles will favor
   hybrid microbursts with severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph,
   especially with any organized clusters/high-based supercells and
   storm mergers.  Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter will be
   possible with any persistent supercells or favorable storm mergers. 
   The tornado threat will be tempered by modest low-level moisture.

   ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/15/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z