SPC AC 270059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

   Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible, large hail and wind
   damage remain possible this evening across parts of the lower to mid
   Missouri Valley. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a
   couple of tornadoes will also be possible from the Ozarks southward
   into the Ark-La-Tex. Hail will be possible late tonight in parts of
   west and northwest Texas.

   ...Lower To Mid Missouri Valley...
   A negatively tilted upper-level trough, evident on water vapor
   imagery, is currently moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Just
   ahead of the trough, a cluster of severe storms is located near the
   nose of a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture
   and instability. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the
   low to mid 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP around 1500
   J/kg. In addition, a 50 to 60 knot low to mid-level jet is located
   across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. This feature is creating
   strong deep-layer and very strong low-level shear. This shear is
   being sampled by the Des Moines WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear
   near 60 knots, a looping hodograph, and 0-3 km storm-relative
   helicity around 650 m2/s2. This environment will continue to be
   favorable for supercells and tornadoes over the next few hours as
   the cluster moves east-northeastward across central and southern
   Iowa. Isolated large hail and wind damage will also be possible with
   the stronger storms within this cluster. The severe threat should
   become more isolated late this evening as the cluster moves into
   weaker instability across northern and eastern Iowa.

   Further to the south, a small cluster of severe storms is ongoing in
   western Missouri. This cluster is located along the eastern edge of
   a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE
   in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The cluster is also located just to
   the west of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The Springfield, Missouri
   WSR-88D VWP is sampling the low-level jet, and has a looping
   hodograph with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 700 m2/s2. This
   will continue to support an isolated tornado threat with supercells
   for a couple more hours this evening. A threat for large hail and
   isolated wind damage will also exist with these storms.

   As these storm clusters move eastward into the Mississippi River
   Valley late this evening into the overnight period, the severe
   threat is expected to become marginal. Hail and isolated wind damage
   will the primary threats.

   ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex...
   The latest water-vapor imagery shows what appears to be a subtle
   shortwave trough moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A 50 to 60 knot
   low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from northeast Texas into
   western Arkansas. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is
   ongoing along the eastern edge of the low-level jet, where surface
   dewpoints range from 65 to 70 F, and the RAP has MLCAPE near 1500
   J/kg. In addition, the Shreveport, LA WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km near 40
   knots, with a gradually veering winds with height. This should be
   enough to continue a severe threat for a few more hours this
   evening. The stronger rotating cells and bowing line segments will
   have a potential for large hail and wind damage.

   ...West/Northwest Texas...
   An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest
   tonight. Ahead of the system, strong moisture advection will take
   place across the southern Plains. A dryline in west-central Texas
   will retreat westward this evening, allowing for moderate
   instability to develop across parts of west Texas. As a low-level
   jet strengthens across west Texas late tonight, elevated strong
   thunderstorms are expected to develop from the eastern edge of the
   Caprock northeastward into the northwest Texas. These storms will
   have a chance for isolated large hail.

   ..Broyles.. 04/27/2024

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