SPC AC 260111

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible
   this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central
   Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter,
   damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this
   evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma.

   ...Central Plains...
   An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently
   near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70
   knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface,
   a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends
   southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow
   moving front is located across west-central and south-central
   Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the
   north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will
   continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern
   Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are
   expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening,
   moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight.

   RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and
   north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range,
   effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5
   to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for
   supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could
   produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest
   tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where
   forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative
   helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can
   re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this
   evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage
   threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into
   northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development
   will be possible later this evening.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the
   Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is
   moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east
   of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is
   estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
   are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west
   Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These
   storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving
   northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma
   tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of
   the west-central Texas.

   RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and
   southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear
   around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km
   range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail.
   Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the
   strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped
   hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2,
   suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be
   possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment
   can eventually organize.

   ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024

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